Final Comparison Multiway

  • 1/4 * -$5.62) + (1/4 * $17.71) + (1/4 * $73.28) + (1/16 *-$14.5) + (3/16 * $-3.4) = $19.8 EV Heads-Up:
  • 1/4 * $5) + (1/4 * $20) + (3/8 * $78) + (1/8 (-$12.30) = $33.96 EV

As you can see, the expectation earned by knocking out the big blind is worth more than $10 postflop. There are settings where this will not be the case. If the opponents' skill is sufficiently higher, the big blind is very loose (and will call a reraise cold), or the big blind is very tight (and will fold to a single bet very often), the value of a reraise is diminished. However, these conditions are rare enough to make a reraise in the small blind profitable in most circumstances in my opinion, and I believe our arithmetic above confirms my advice. Finally, there is one last factor that we did not address. Reraising shows strength. Against most opposition, this display of strength preflop increases the likelihood of the button folding on the flop. Thus, the small blind earns further profit from extra successful bluffs, and the small blind is more likely to know where it stands if the button continues to play, because the small blind has indicated strength early.

All in all, the last two articles were rough, complex, and assumptive. But they help illustrate how an understanding of simple probabilities can allow any player with a pad, pen, and a calculator to ascertain the superior of two alternatives. This preparation gives credibility to a strategy-far improved from a writer simply stating "Reraising from the small blind is usually more profitable." And it can hopefully help prepare you to analyze other authors' arguments to come to your own conclusions. Until next month, good luck!

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