DIPO on Flop DIPO on Turn two different decisions

You have AKo (an Ace and a King of different suits) on the button, everyone folds to you and you raise. Both blinds call. There are three players seeing the Flop for 3 big bets.

Flop: Q-8-2 rainbow

It is checked to you and you bet. The small blind check-raises and the big blind folds. The decision is whether or not to call if you expect to have 4.5 outs on average. You expect that if you catch an A or K, your opponent will bet once, but if you call or raise, he will fold after that. So the expected pot size is 5.5 big bets or 11 small bets (there were 3 big bets before the Flop, your bet on the Flop made it 3.5 big bets, the check-raise made it 4.5 big bets, and you expect to make another big bet on the Turn if you catch).

Good Number = 4.5 x 11 Bad Number = 47 - 4.5 = 42.5

The Good Number is greater than the Bad Number (notice we do not actually need to multiply out the Good Number, we just need to be able to see that it is greater than the Bad Number), so calling is a good decision.

Turn: 6

A total blank. Your opponent bets again. Now he has made it 5.5 big bets. You suspect that if you catch your out on the River, you will win another big bet, so the expected pot size is 6.5. Now you want to use big bets instead of small bets, because now it takes one big bet to call his bet rather than one small bet like it did on the Flop.

Good Number = 4.5 x 6.5 Bad Number = 46 - 4.5 = 41.5

Again, you do not need to do the calculations if you can see that the Bad Number in this case is greater than the Good Number. So now you want to fold. Put in another way, the bet got expensive, too expensive compared to the pot size, and now it is not worth pursuing.

0 0

Post a comment