Board KJ [turn A

You decide that he is definitely on a flush draw. He cannot beat you unless he catches a club on the River. He is an aggressive player, so you think that if you show weakness by just calling his bet on the Turn that he will bet out on the River even if he has nothing. If you just call and you win, you will win two bets (one on Turn, one on River). If he catches, then you will lose two bets as well.

If you raise, you are telling him you have a made hand, at which point he will now back off on the River and check and fold if he does not hit his flush. If he does not catch a flush on the River, then you will win two bets (two bets from him on the Turn, none on the River). But if he does catch his flush on the River, he will bet out and then you will lose three bets (two bets on the Turn since you raised, and one on the River after you call his bet).

This is a situation where you can win or lose two bets if you just call on the Turn. But if you raised on the Turn, you can win two bets if you win, but lose three bets if you lose. Even though you believe you are ahead, calling against this player who will bluff 100% of the time. The EV formulas are as follows:




EV of calling

(35/44 x 2 bets) + (9/44 x -2 bets)


EV of raising

(35/44 x 2 bets) + (9/44 x -3 bets)


This demonstrations shows a situation where you may not want to raise an aggressive player who is on a draw. However, in the real world, it is rarely as simple as this as it will be difficult to know exactly what he has. Possibly he has a set (then you would have few outs) or he has top pair with a lower kicker than yours (then he would have few outs). Here is an example that will more accurately reflect a real situation at the poker table.


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