Obviously, the greater the error, the less the advantage. If we assume the total prediction error is is (approximately) normally distributed, then we can construct a table showing the player's expected gain or loss as a function of E. Table 4-4 gives the results for a bet on the best pocket and also for a bet on the best octant. The best octant is a set of five pockets, two on each side of the best pocket. The Table shows that, when the prediction error is normally distributed, the typical...

## The Wheel of Fortune

In the last chapter, I described a system for winning at roulette based on physical prediction. That system was developed largely in 1961 and 1962 in collaboration with Claude Shannon at MIT. One by-product was an even simpler system for physical prediction of the Wheel of Fortune. A story about me and blackjack card-counting in Life magazine, March 27,1964, reported on this in a section entitled Beating the Wheel of Fortune with the Big Toe. While I was at the Fifth Annual Conference on...

## Simple Casino Countermeasure

It should be clear that for this method to work, we have to time the ball and rotor before placing our potentially winning bets. Earlier bets are losing, on average, so are only camouflage. Thus, the casino must allow us to continue to bet for a time after the ball is launched. I have observed roulette wheels all over the world Monte Carlo our final goal , Nevada, Puerto Rico, Nice, Venice, and London. The practice has been, generally but not always, to allow bets until the ball was almost...

## Why Hedge

In the securities and finance markets, to hedge is to take two or more investment positions simultaneously. The risks should cancel out and an excess rate of expected return should remain. In a real horse race or any pari-mutuel contest for that matter , the true probabilities are not known. If we knew the true probabilities or had better estimates than the pari-mutuel pool offers, we might find horses with a positive expectation. Then we could simply bet directly on those horses instead of...

## Introductory Statement

The casino patron who decides to try his luck at the tables and the horse player who wagers at the racetrack confront what seem to be formidable adversaries. The casinos hope to have the advantage on every bet offered and, at the track, the pari-mutuel takeout of 17-25 on every bet assures all but a few will wind up losers. As soon as he enters the casino, the player must make several important decisions, the first being What game do I play Even after this choice is made, most games offer...

## Backgammon

Backgammon has taken its place alongside bridge as a favorite pastime of sophisticated gamers. It is essentially a racing game, where each player tries to get his pieces off the board first. But, thanks to the doubling cube, it's also a gambling game, played for high stakes in clubs across the country. The basics of this intriguing board game are really very easy to master. See The Rules of Backgammon, pp. 84-85. This chapter will focus on several aspects of backgammon that can be solved...

## The Daily Double

Let's apply the horse hedge idea to the daily double bet. The same idea, with some modifications, also applies to exactas, pick six and similar bets and to exactas, quinellas and trifectas in jai alai. For a little background on the daily double, I quote from the book Science in Betting The Players and the Horses, by E. R. Da Silva, and Roy M. Dorcus In daily double betting, any horse in the first race can be combined with any horse in the second race, and to win the bettor must successfully...

## Kimmel and the Dealers Signature

Stephen Kimmel asserted that a dealer who works eight hours a day, 50 weeks a year, tends to spin the ball and rotor in a habitual, regular way. This would make possible accurate predictions a bet on ten pockets, Kimmel contended, would have a 50 chance of success. His views were contained in an article Roulette and Randomness in the December, 1979 issue of Gambling Times. I don't believe KimmeFs approach works. Here's why there are three important conditions that must remain roughly constant...