Poker Odds From The Turn

Many players who really understand Hold'em odds still tend to forget that the 'turn' can change their odds dramatically. It's true that for a flush draw, the card odds are 1.9 to 1 from the flop to the river. However, this is a theoretical situation where it assumes there is no additional betting on the turn. Typically this is not going to be the case so you will need to recalculate your card odds and pot odds.

We will use the flush calculation example again and run through it 100 times assuming there was $20 in the pot on the flop with two $5 bets. On the turn, this leaves $30 in the pot, plus a $10 bet from your opponent to call.

Cost to Play = 100 hands * $10 to call on turn = -$1,000 Pot Value = $30 + $10 bet + $10 call

Total Hands Won = 100 * Odds to Win (19%) = 19 wins

Net Profit = Net Cost to Play + (Total Times Won * Pot Value) = -$1,000 + (19 * $50) = -$1,000 + $900 = -$100 Profit

Now, you can see that what was a very profitable draw on the flop suddenly turned into a not so great draw on the turn. This is because by not hitting your flush by the turn, it lowered your chances of making a flush by the river. The odds thus increased to 4.1 to 1 instead of 1.9 to 1. So even though the pot odds remained the same at 4:1, because the card odds went down, this flush draw has now become unprofitable.

Realizing the dynamic changes in your odds is extremely important so that you don't go making incorrect draws based on odds from the flop. Just remember that your odds essentially double from the flop to the turn, so adjust your play accordingly.

Each entry in the following table is the result of 1,000,000 simulated hands of Texas Hold 'em played to the showdown and represents the percentage of pots won (including partial pots in the case of splits) by the indicated hand against the indicated number of opponents holding random hands.

The study shows a very clear correlation between your odds of success against the number of players. Notice the JJ, TT, 99 anomaly where the power of these cards increase dramatically over perceived better pocket cards - depending on how many players are left. The hands indicated in BOLD can have impressive results but require aggressive raising to force out weaker players.

Hand

  1. 3 73.4 63.9 55.9 49.2 43.6 38.8 34.7 31.1 82.468.9 58.249.843.0 37.5 32.929.226.1 79.9 64.9 53.5 44.7 37.9 32.5 28.3 24.9 22.2
  2. 0 50.741.4 35.4 31.127.725.022.720.7
  3. 1 49.439.933.729.4 26.023.321.1 19.3 77.5 61.2 49.2 40.3 33.6 28.5 24.6 21.619.3
  4. 447.1 38.2 32.528.3 25.1 22.520.418.6
  5. 448.2 38.5 32.227.8 24.522.019.918.1 62.645.9 36.8 31.1 26.9 23.821.319.317.6 64.747.1 37.2 31.026.7 23.521.018.917.3
  6. 4 48.2 38.6 32.4 27.9 24.4 21.6 19.2 17.2 75.1 57.7 45.2 36.4 30.0 25.3 21.819.217.2 60.344.1 35.6 30.1 26.1 23.020.718.717.1 61.944.9 35.729.925.8 22.820.418.516.9 59.543.1 34.629.1 25.2 22.319.918.1 16.6 57.541.9 33.828.524.7 21.919.717.916.5 72.1 53.5 41.1 32.6 26.6 22.419.417.215.6

KQ 61.444.435.229.325.121.819.1 16.915.1

A8s 62.1 43.733.627.423.3 20.318.016.214.8

J9s 55.839.631.326.1 22.4 19.717.615.914.6

A5s 59.941.4 31.826.022.2 19.617.515.914.5

Q9s 57.940.7 31.926.422.5 19.717.615.914.5

Was this article helpful?

0 0

Post a comment