Math in PLO Forces You to Fold

Suppose now that you have

A

7

11

1

*

*

A

and the flop is and the flop is

You have flopped the nut flush draw and a belly buster (inside) straight draw (you need a five for a straight). You raise an opponent's bet on the flop and he calls. Now comes off for

4

B

(1

?

*

*

*

and your opponent bets out t he size of t he pot. You would count your "outs" and see t hat al make you straight with

3

5

8

3

[Til

n

K

4

i

*

i

*

i

i

, or

*

all make you the nut flush. I n addition, you can make the nut

. So you have 10 outs out of 44 available cards. ( If you assume t hat your opponent has two pair cards in his hand, then there are 42 "unknown" cards left. I n this c ase you can't do that, b ecause he may have 3-5-x-x, which makes the straight.) Thus, t here are 34 losses to 10 wins, s o that you're a 3.4-to-1 underdog in this case. You also know that t he pot i s l aying you 2 to 1 when someone bets t he full s ize of t he pot. I f it had been close, the implied odds would have put you over the top, but it i sn't that c lose. You now have to fold your hand because the math j ust isn't there for you to call right here.

Before you consider calling a pot-size bet with your drawing hand, count the number of winning cards that you can hit. If the number of potential winners i s 13 or more, you can call. I f the number of winners is 12 or fewer, you should fold your hand.

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